Trump war on Biden climate policy creates new form of EV range anxiety

Ownership of electric vehicles continues to rise in the U.S., with nearly six million battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids currently on the road. Even though that’s still a fraction of the overall market and the growth rate of EV sales has slowed, automakers remain invested in the eventual transition away from gasoline, as 2024 sales of traditional internal combustion engine cars fell below 80% for the first time in modern automotive history.

Continued EV sales growth shows that at least for a significant portion of auto consumers, range anxiety is no longer an issue. But it is a persistent fear in the EV market that is getting a new test with the Trump administration looking to slash EV incentives from the federal government.

The majority of EV owners charge up at home, but from city streets and interstate highways to parking garages and airports, the EV industry is concentrated on installing enough chargers in public places to help end range anxiety, while building pure-play charging business models that can stand on their own and turn a profit.

According to the latest figures compiled by Paren AFDC+ Charger Database, there are 68,000 public and private Level 3 (fastest) and Level 2 EV charging stations across the country, each with one or more individual ports, for a total of around 266,000 ports. Installing, operating and servicing the chargers, it’s an industry that is a fundamental driver of widescale EV adoption — and right now, it’s an industry that is struggling to maintain traction in what has lately become an uncertain and politicized marketplace.

Despite a recent surprise Tesla’s sales event at the White House, Trump and his top administration officials — from Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary and former fossil fuels industry CEO Chris Wright — have made it clear that stripping away federal support for EVs is among changes being sought as they prioritize oil and gas in energy policy. Already impacted by the slowdown in EV sales, charging companies are battling a recent freeze on an important federal funding program, while also waiting to see how OEMs are affected by the Trump administration’s tariffs and resulting trade wars, particularly involving essential steel and aluminum.

Former President Joe Biden, as part of his signature agenda to combat climate change, set a goal that half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030 would be electric, which also meant having an adequate, reliable nationwide charging infrastructure by then. To address the build out, the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) formula program was authorized by Congress under the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law.

NEVI earmarked $5 billion in grants, apportioned annually over five years, to states’ departments of transportation to deploy a network of 500,000 high-speed EV chargers by 2030, primarily along interstate highways, but also rural roadways and low-income communities. Funding is available for up to 80% of eligible project costs. State DOTs are responsible for developing projects and coordinating with site owners and charging companies, which can be an arduous process, markedly different from planning routine infrastructure projects.

A national issue that the funding seeks to address is that while public chargers are relatively plentiful in big cities and suburbs where EV adoption is high — think San Francisco, Los Angeles, Denver, Houston, Chicago, Miami and New York — they’re lacking in rural and remote communities in places like Montana, Wyoming and upstate New York, where EVs sales are low. That geographic disparity contributes to charging anxiety. Drivers are worried that there aren’t enough charging stations outside of metro regions, which accentuates their fears of running out of juice, especially on long trips. And harrowing tales of broken, vandalized or otherwise non-working chargers feed into the trepidations.

According to Paren, four of the five years of NEVI funding, or $3.2 billion, has been approved for all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. Yet only $616 million has been awarded by 33 states to 104 applicants for 1,000 charging stations. To date, 60 charging stations with a combined 268 ports have been built, using $33 million of NEVI funds. While the federal government has not released figures, Paren estimates that perhaps less than $25 million has actually been transferred to states to reimburse charging companies for incurred expenses.

‘Killing those evil EVs and EV chargers’

Stark evidence of the Trump administration’s plans to target EV charging came on Feb. 6, when the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration issued a memo to state DOTs informing them that it was suspending NEVI. The memo stated that FHWA will publish revised NEVI guidelines this spring and solicit public comment before final rules are determined. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy subsequently told Fox Business News that any existing contracts that have been signed “are still going to be funded, but there will be no new funding priorities or projects as we go through a review process.”

The NEVI freeze created immediate confusion among state DOTs, especially as to whether the approved funds will indeed be allocated. “We need that to happen, because this program works on a reimbursable basis,” said Jim Tymon, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Many states, he said, “have essentially issued stop work orders, even for existing contracts, because they don’t want to be left holding the bag if the feds decide not to reimburse for any work.”

Historically, new administrations have set their transportation priorities and shifted them accordingly. Yet amending programs and funding that are authorized in law — including NEVI, for which funding has been delayed — would require an act of Congress. The Trump administration, nonetheless, sidestepped Congress and unilaterally suspended NEVI and its funding formula while it considers new guidelines.

In the interim, if those approved funds are not allocated to states, the courts may end up determining whether the freeze is legal. In a ruling on March 6, a federal judge blocked the president’s hold on congressionally approved funds obligated to state agencies and governments, which could conceivably apply to any attempts to renege on NEVI funding.

Loren McDonald, chief analyst at Paren, has a jaundiced view of the motivation behind the NEVI pause. “The administration’s plan is not to actually impact the deployment of charging infrastructure,” he said. “It’s to drive the narrative that we’re killing those evil EVs and EV chargers.”

For the small sector of EV charging companies, headlined by a trio of publicly owned pure-plays — ChargePoint Holdings, Blink Charging and EVgo — all of the EV uncertainty has been enough to keep shares under considerable pressure, with year-to-date declines of 35% to 50% and two of the three stocks currently trading below $1.

ChargePoint provides infrastructure hardware, software and services to businesses and fleets that operate EV charging networks. Competitors Blink and EVgo own and operate their own chargers and networks, while also supporting third-party operators. All three experienced substantial stock falloffs starting in 2024, and investors are keeping a wary eye on their performance over the coming months.

The rest of the EV charging industry encompasses a diverse array of players, among them privately held startups, a joint venture between eight automotive OEMs known as IONNA, highway truck stop and travel centers like Love’s, Kwik Trip and Pilot Flying J, convenience store chains including Wawa, Sheetz and 7-Eleven, and big-box retailers such as Walmart, Target and Costco.  

Nearly half of the NEVI awardees are members of the National Association of Truck Stop Owners, the trade association for more than 250 highway truck stops and travel centers, and SIGMA, which represents fuel marketers. David Fialkov, executive vice president of government affairs for both groups, is critical of NEVI’s “incoherent patchwork, not only of grant requirements, but of regulatory and market backdrops in different states that are wholly untethered to one another.” So if the program’s pause “is a bona fide effort to turn it into something more market-oriented and consumer-oriented,” Fialkov said, “we think that’s ultimately better for the market.”

The future of EV charging station demand and deployment

McDonald says a look at the industry numbers shows that the reality is, “whatever they attempt to do is probably going to have little to no actual impact on deployment.”

In 2025, for example, about 10% of fast-charging ports may be funded through NEVI. McDonald estimated that a total of about 16,000 new fast-charging ports will be added this year. “From a macro perspective, the industry is not dependent on federal funding,” he said. At most, he added, “only about 1,500 of those will be NEVI-funded, and maybe even fewer,” depending on the breadth of changes to the program.

During an earnings call on March 4, Rick Wilmer, president and CEO of ChargePoint, told analysts that NEVI-related deals represented an “insignificant portion” of its revenue in 2024 and the company did not anticipate NEVI changes would have a material effect on its business.

According to Paren data, ChargePoint has received three NEVI awards totaling $1.75 million.

Separately, Wilmer told CNBC that in the context of NEVI, ChargePoint supports its customers that operate charging stations and sell electricity. “We’re very intentional about not doing that, because it would put us in direct competition with them,” he said. “We provide the technology and the solutions and help our customers apply for and win NEVI funding. So in the grand scheme of things, NEVI is a very small portion of our business.”

ChargePoint reported positive results for the fourth quarter of its FY2025, ended in January, though full-year revenue declined more than 17%, and its stock has fallen roughly 60% over the past year.

The EV charging industry is going through an evolution right now, according to Craig Irwin, an industry analyst at Roth Capital Partners, and companies not dependent on subsidies have better prospects. “The focus on putting credible products out there without subsidy dollars is a winning strategy,” he said. “People want chargers in front of their libraries, real estate developments and other public places. The demand is still there.”

A spokesperson for EVgo, which sites its public chargers in just such high-use urban and metro areas, said that it has received minimal funding through NEVI. The company generates revenue from the utilization of its charging network and taps into other incentive programs offered by state governments and utility companies, whose programs do not include the same geographic constraints as NEVI.  

In December, EVgo announced the closing of a $1.25 billion guaranteed loan from the U.S. Department of Energy, a financing commitment it has pointed to as a sign of certainty. “This loan ensures we are fully funded to add at least 7,500 [ports at roughly 1,100 charging stations], more than tripling our installed base over the next five years,” CEO Badar Khan told analysts during its earnings call earlier this month.

Yet the Trump administration has threatened to find ways to retroactively pull DOE loan funding approved in the last days of the Biden administration, which sprinted to get deals finalized before Trump’s inauguration.

EVgo has been growing, reporting fourth-quarter 2024 revenue up 35% year-over-year, and up 60% for the full year. But despite those gains, the company continues to operate at a loss.

Blink says it does not depend much on NEVI to fund its charging infrastructure, relying instead on hardware sales, software subscriptions, charging revenue and corporate partnerships. “The majority of our other funding is within the largest utility companies,” said CEO Mike Battaglia. “There are some [state] grants out there, as well, that we take advantage of.”

Blink achieved record charging revenue last year, and significantly grew the Blink-owned network, according to its recent Q4 and full year report on March 13. Yet, revenue declined in the fourth quarter and for the full year in comparison to “exceptionally strong equipment sales in 2023,” Battaglia said. The company said it expects revenue will pick up in the second half of 2025 and to have a better idea as to when it will achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability later in the year.

Then there’s the elephant in the room — Tesla, whose sales and stock price have plunged lately following a post-election surge. Tesla is in a unique position, as a manufacturer of both branded EVs and charging stations — and whose CEO Elon Musk has emerged as a central character not just in the sector, but across the entire economic and political landscape.

It has heavily invested in building out its network of superchargers, which are compatible with a growing number of other OEMs’ EV models, including GM, Ford, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Rivian. And its proprietary NACS charging connector and port is being adopted by other charging companies. Ironically, considering that Musk favors getting rid of EV subsidies, Tesla is the second-largest recipient of NEVI funds, granted more than $41 million for 99 sites. Elon Musk said in the lead-up to the election that any Trump policies that hurt EVs would hurt his competitors more than Tesla, but recently, Tesla and other Musk firms have been lobbying the government, at least on the issue of tariffs.

With so much uncertainty looming over the EV charging industry — plus the shakeout that typically occurs among nascent tech industries — there’s bound to be consolidation this year. Several companies have already declared bankruptcy or gone out of business, including the North American affiliates of European utility-owned charging companies, Enel X and EVBox, and Tritium, which runs an EV charging equipment plant in Tennessee and was acquired by an Indian conglomerate after declaring insolvency in 2024.

Depending on the outcome of the NEVI situation, companies that heavily rely on its funds and can’t access alternative capital sources may go belly up or partner with other entities. The fate of the public companies remains to be seen, while Tesla spins in its own topsy-turvy orbit. In the meantime, EV adoption does continue to increase, and more chargers will be installed in a growing number of places. It’s the pace, and the winners and losers, that are yet to be determined.