Mortgage rates are a little lower this week, but the path forward just became a lot less clear.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell two basis points to 6.33% APR in the week ending Oct. 2, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
The week’s biggest news, of course, was Wednesday’s government shutdown. This doesn’t affect mortgage rates directly, but it will certainly affect the economy — and rates will reflect that. It also makes mortgage rates’ future moves much more difficult to predict, as key economic indicators become unavailable.
How the shutdown affects data
Mortgage lenders use a number of factors, including key economic reports released by the government, to determine mortgage rates. That data is also vital for the Federal Reserve, which plays a major role in influencing interest rates.
If everything were proceeding as normal, we’d be looking ahead to Friday’s jobs report. Would it reinforce data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which seemed to show a stable labor market? Would a firming labor market turn the Federal Reserve’s focus to inflation, which doesn’t appear to be slowing?
We don’t know, and it’s hard to say when we will. The federal government shut down on Wednesday, and per the Department of Labor’s contingency plan, the BLS will be closed until the government reopens. That means existing data won’t be released — job report numbers were gathered before the shutdown went into effect — and new data won’t be collected.
If the shutdown drags on, future reports could be compromised. Data collection’s already done for September’s Consumer Price Index, scheduled for Oct. 15. In the event of a swift reopening, those numbers could come out quickly. But a prolonged shutdown that halts data collection could make it more difficult to gauge the economy’s health.
The Fed’s job gets tougher
That’s going to make the Federal Reserve‘s job harder. The Fed remains open, since it’s mostly funded by interest earned on assets like Treasury bills and mortgage-backed securities. But the central bankers rely heavily on government data in their decision-making — and they’re already in a tight spot.
“Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a Sept. 23 speech. “Two-sided risks mean that there is no risk-free path.” To explain those sides in plainer English: Cutting rates too much might let inflation get out of control, while raising rates could hurt the job market.
The central bankers’ next meeting is right around the corner, beginning on Oct. 28, and missing data will make it harder for the central bankers to weigh the risks and benefits.
An unlikely moment of opportunity for home buyers
Lack of clarity around the October mortgage rate forecast especially hurts now. Fall may not be the traditional homebuying season, but it’s arguably the best time to buy a home.
Home buyers have already been getting back in the hunt. Monthly pending home sales, or the number of homes under contract, rose 4% in August after being sluggish throughout 2025, according to data released Sept. 29 by the National Association of Realtors.
And that’s just August: September’s average mortgage rates were lower, bottoming out just before the Federal Reserve’s mid-September rate cut. We’ve seen a bit of a bounce since then, but average rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans are still close to the lowest we’ve seen all year.
The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown may make some buyers hesitate, and that’s fine: Buying a home is a huge commitment, and if you aren’t all in, it’s okay to wait. But if you’re feeling secure about your situation and you’re ready to make that move, October could be your time to buy.
The article Weekly Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Shutdown Sows Uncertainty originally appeared on NerdWallet.