A new analysis of satellite scans from the deepest lunar craters has led to some surprising and chilling results that could dramatically impact future moon colonization plans. Researchers from the University of Hawaii at Mānoa and their partners have re-examined data from the ShadowCam aboard the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) and have revised earlier estimates of water ice deposits found in the Moon’s permanently shadowed regions (PSRs). The scans reveal significantly fewer ice deposits than initially believed, which could pose a challenge for future lunar colonies that rely on local resources.
The initial findings from 2018 led by researchers at the University of Hawaii had estimated that 30% of the surface area within the PSRs contained water ice, a discovery that was hailed as a game-changer for sustainable lunar exploration. However, the new scans suggest that the upper limit of ice deposits could be closer to 20%, reducing the potential for water production and life support for future lunar colonists.
The Search for Ice in Lunar Craters
The discovery of water ice on the moon has been a key objective for lunar exploration missions. Water is a critical resource for sustaining human life on the Moon, and it could be used for drinking water, oxygen, fuel, and even construction materials. In 2018, the University of Hawaii made the groundbreaking discovery of surface-exposed water ice on the Moon, particularly within the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs)—areas that never see sunlight.
Using the ShadowCam aboard the KPLO, launched in August 2022, the research team analyzed the lunar surface and the amount of light reflected by water ice in these shadowed craters. Water ice is more reflective than lunar rock, making it an ideal target for remote sensing. The initial scans provided an estimated water ice content ranging from 5% to 30% in the PSRs.
However, Jordan Ando, a graduate student working in Shuai Li’s laboratory, reanalyzed the high-resolution images obtained by ShadowCam and discovered lower levels of reflectivity than originally expected. The analysis confirmed that the lunar surface in these areas did not show the anticipated widespread brightening, resulting in a revised estimate of less than 20% water ice.
What This Means for Future Lunar Colonies
The potential reduction of water ice in the Moon’s PSRs presents a significant challenge for future missions aimed at building lunar colonies. Access to water, whether for life support systems or to convert into rocket fuel, is a crucial consideration for long-term lunar settlement. A decrease in the availability of surface ice means that missions may need to reconsider their strategies for sourcing water and other vital resources.
Despite this setback, the search for water ice continues. There are still undiscovered sources deep below the surface that could provide critical resources, and missions like the Cosmic Ray Radar technology (currently under development) could offer new methods for detecting buried ice deposits. Emily S. Costello, a researcher from the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, is leading a team working on radar technology that could penetrate the Moon’s surface using cosmic rays to detect hidden ice layers.