In a development that’s caught the eye of scientists around the world, an asteroid called 2024 YR4 now looks like it might actually hit our planet. It was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Rio Hurtado Observatory in Chile. Right now, it’s about twice as far from Earth as the Moon is. With an estimated size of 40 to 100 meters, it’s definitely got the attention of experts keeping tabs on things in our solar system.
Rising collision odds
At first, scientists figured there was a 1 in 83 chance (around 1.2%) that it would eventually collide with Earth. New observations, however, have pushed that risk up to 1 in 43 (about 2.3%). Earlier this week, an intermediate estimate came in at roughly 1.9%. Now, with a potential hit scheduled for December 22, 2032, agencies like NASA are watching it very closely and have even bumped 2024 YR4 to the top of their Sentry Risk List.
Experts are calling this a “unique” situation (they’ve never seen an object with a collision chance this high since we started calculating asteroid paths), which means folks are keeping a careful eye on it.
Nasa on the case
NASA’s been all over this one, tracking 2024 YR4 and updating its collision chance regularly. Their network of telescopes—like the repurposed WISE Space Telescope (which wrapped up its secondary mission on August 8, 2024)—plays a huge role in spotting these near-Earth visitors. Looking ahead, NASA plans to send up an infrared space telescope solely for finding asteroids, which should boost their ability to spot any future threats.
Over in Chile, the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope snapped some images of the asteroid in early January. These shots are super helpful for getting a better idea of its path and what might happen if it ever collides with Earth.
Spotting and tracking challenges
Finding asteroids like 2024 YR4 isn’t a walk in the park. They’re easiest to see when they’re close to Earth and catching sunlight. Radar can give really good measurements, but by the time the asteroid makes its next close pass in 2028—about twenty times the Moon’s distance away—radar might not be much help.
That’s where infrared astronomy steps in. It delivers better estimates of an asteroid’s size. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), which comes equipped with special infrared filters for tracking asteroids, is a top pick for these kinds of observations.
Global teamwork and tech advances
When it comes to guarding our planet, working together around the world is key. The Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts, acts as the main hub for reporting new asteroid finds. Telescopes everywhere are encouraged to add their data to this worldwide effort.
NASA also has plans for a new mission called the Near-Earth Object Surveyor. This project aims to boost detection powers with an infrared space observatory focused on spotting potentially dangerous asteroids like 2024 YR4. Plus, JWST now has the go-ahead to help out with planetary defense, meaning our tracking network just got a lot stronger.
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
Next steps and watchful eyes
Looking forward, tracking during the asteroid’s next close pass in 2028 should help tighten up our predictions for 2032 and might even lower the chance of a collision altogether. Observations from before its discovery could also provide years of data to further refine its orbit calculations.
This whole issue shows why keeping an eye on our skies and improving our technology is so important to protect our planet from space hazards. While experts continue to watch and model the asteroid’s course, staying informed is the best way for everyone to be ready for whatever comes next.
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