Beirut, Lebanon – A crucial meeting bringing together Israeli and Lebanese representatives, among others, is scheduled to take place on Friday, with the potential relaunch of an expanded Israeli war on Lebanon hanging over the gathering.
The meeting in the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura is the second to include civilian representatives from Lebanon and Israel, after the first took place on December 3, amid Israeli attacks. The meetings are ostensibly to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah last year, despite the fact that Israel has violated the agreement on a regular basis.
Recommended Stories
list of 3 itemsend of list
Since October 8, 2023, Israel has killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon after its war with the Lebanese group began. A ceasefire was agreed on November 27, 2024, but since then, Israel has killed more than 300 people, including at least 127 civilians, according to the United Nations. The talks come as Israel continues to attack Lebanon on a near-daily basis and threatens to expand its war on the country.
Here’s everything you need to know about the talks.
Who is meeting?
A special committee of representatives from the United States, France, Israel, Lebanon, and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, which is based in Naqoura.
The committee is chaired by a US general and was originally composed of military officials. But due to Israeli pressure, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun appointed Simon Karam, a Lebanese diplomat, to participate earlier this month.
Israel reportedly wants the inclusion of civilians to discuss nonmilitary issues, such as plans for potential economic cooperation.
Israel also appointed a civilian representative from its National Security Council, Uri Resnick, and the meeting was also attended by US Special Representative for Lebanon Morgan Ortagus.
What is the goal?
The committee’s plan of action is to monitor the ceasefire agreed last year.
The terms of the ceasefire were left relatively undefined, but it was widely assumed that attacks from both sides would cease, the Lebanese army would disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and that Israel would withdraw its troops from its northern neighbour.
Officials say Lebanon has largely met its side of the bargain. Speaking at a conference in Beirut on Wednesday, Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri said the army’s task of disarming Hezbollah below the Litani River, which runs across southern Lebanon, was nearly completed, apart from the places where Israel still occupies Lebanese land.
However, Israel has violated the ceasefire repeatedly and continues to occupy five locations in southern Lebanon.
“The main task of the mechanism is to oversee and verify and do everything possible to respect the agreement,” Mitri said.
Lebanon has been “strictly observing” the ceasefire agreement since day one, but that is not the case for Israel, he added.
What was the outcome of the last meeting?
The members of the so-called mechanism met in Naqoura, south Lebanon, on December 3. The meeting was reportedly positive.
The inclusion of civilians “reflects the Mechanism’s commitment to facilitating political and military discussions with the aim of achieving security, stability, and a durable peace for all communities affected by the conflict”, the US embassy said in a statement about the meeting
The office of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement that emphasised potential future economic agreement between his country and Lebanon. However, analysts believe that is a far-fetched proposition considering Israel is still occupying territory in southern Lebanon, and more than 88,000 Lebanese are still displaced from their homes in the region.
Despite the alleged positivity of the meeting, Israel attacked Lebanon the very next day.
Is normalisation on the agenda?
From the Lebanese side, no. Normalising relations with Israel after a war that killed thousands, including many civilians, would anger a large segment of the population.
But there has been US and Israeli pressure to find a peace agreement and to move towards normalisation.
The mechanism meeting is also a place for other bilateral discussions between Israel and Lebanon, which do not have direct relations.
On the Lebanese side, border delineation is a priority. On the Israeli side, a US-backed economic zone is high on the agenda.
So if Israel is unhappy with the talks, will it launch a war?
That is still unclear.
Israel has claimed Hezbollah is rearming, though analysts say the group is not an existential threat to Israel. The group, long the political and military hegemon in Lebanon, was badly weakened during last year’s war with Israel. Much of its senior military leadership was assassinated, including its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.
With Hezbollah weakened, some analysts believe Israel’s decision will be based on internal Israeli politics and dependent on international pressure on Israel.
Officials from the US, Saudi Arabia, and France met the head of the Lebanese army in Paris on Thursday in an effort to coordinate positions and possibly avoid an Israeli intensification in Lebanon. They also agreed to document the Lebanese military’s efforts to disarm Hezbollah, according to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Where is Hezbollah in all of this?
Publicly, it has refused the Lebanese government’s plans for full disarmament.
The group says Israel’s behaviour – continuing to attack and occupy Lebanese territory – justifies its position.
But how it will respond should the ceasefire move forward is yet to be seen. In the proposed second phase, the Lebanese army would start to dismantle Hezbollah’s infrastructure between the Litani and Awali Rivers – the area between Sidon in the south, and Beirut, roughly in the middle of Lebanon.
Hezbollah has been militarily and politically weakened since last year’s war. But while analysts and diplomats have told Al Jazeera that they do not believe the group is strong enough to pose a threat to Israel, it could still cause problems domestically if it feels that it is being cornered.