How the Mayans were able to accurately predict solar eclipses for centuries

The Maya Civilization, from Central America, was one of the most advanced ancient civilizations, known for its significant achievements in astronomy and mathematics. This includes accurate calendars and detailed celestial records, but scientists don’t fully understand all the details of their calculations. However, new research is shedding light on how they predicted future eclipses with remarkable accuracy.

A study published in the journal Science Advances analyzes the Dresden Codex, the most famous surviving record of Mayan astronomy. In particular, researchers focused on the eclipse prediction table which spans 405 lunar months. Previous studies were unable to fully explain the table’s underlying structure or the mechanism Mayans used to keep it updated for centuries. This paper fills in those missing details.

The research overturns a long-held assumption that the table’s 405-month length meant it was created solely for predicting eclipses. Instead, the paper’s authors state that it was first designed as a lunar calendar to align with the Maya’s 260-day astrological calendar.

They used modeling and statistics to show that the 405-month cycle’s length of 11,960 days aligns with the 260-day calendar (46 x 260 = 11,960) much more closely than it aligns with the cycles of solar and lunar eclipses.

“Mayan calendar specialists anticipated solar eclipses by correlating their occurrences with dates in their 260-day divinatory calendar,” wrote the researchers in their paper. “The 405-month eclipse table had emerged from a lunar calendar in which the 260-day divinatory calendar commensurated the lunar cycle.” In other words, the Mayan model for predicting solar eclipses grew directly out of their model for tracking the moon and harmonizing their calendars.

Incredible accuracy

The researchers also solved the mystery of how the Mayans were able to be so accurate with their predictions. Previously, it was thought that once one table finished, they would start a new one. But the latest study shows that to maintain correct predictions for over 700 years, the Mayans used a system of overlapping tables. Instead of starting a new table, they would reset the next table to precise internals of 223 or 358 months before the previous table ended to correct for small astronomical errors that accumulate over time.

The research team reached this conclusion by mathematically modeling the table’s predictions against a historical database of actual solar eclipses visible to the Maya between 350 and 1150 CE. Updating the table this way ensured that it could predict every observable solar eclipse for centuries.

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