The latest NZIER survey showed that economic activity remained soft at the end of last year, though firms are increasingly confident that lower interest rates will provide a boost.

Key results
General business situation: +9.3 (Prev -3.8)
Trading activity, past three months: -26.1 (Prev: -30.1)
Numbers employed, past three months: -19.7 (Prev: -30.2)
Average selling prices, past three months: 12.3 (Prev: 5.0)
The December quarter NZIER survey showed a further pickup in sentiment among businesses, though the improvement remains largely in the realm of expectations for the months ahead, rather than actual performance to date.
A net 9% of firms expect an improvement in the general business environment, compared to a net -4% in September (and much stronger than the net -39% in June). There was a similar lift in firms’ expectations for their own performance over the next three months, rising from -2% to +9%, and they were more positive (or less negative) about their hiring and investment plans.
However, the backward-looking measures showed that conditions remained tough during the December quarter. A net 26% of firms reported a drop in activity – more or less a repeat of what we saw throughout 2024. Firms continued to shed workers, though at a slower pace than in the previous two quarters, and profitability remained weak.
A net 12% of firms reported price increases over the December quarter, compared to a net 5% in September. This was the first rise in this measure since March 2023. While it remains at a benign level in terms of the implications for the annual inflation rate, it does provide an early sign that the disinflation process is coming to an end.
The evidence on capacity pressures was mixed. The capacity utilisation rate rose from 89.1% to 91.3%, though the increase was concentrated among exporting firms; firms focused on domestic demand saw a further drop in their capacity use. Workers remained easy to find on balance, and 67% of firms said that a lack of demand, rather than supply-side factors, were the biggest restraint on their growth – the highest proportion since 2013.
Overall, the QSBO does not change our understanding of the economy. Firms are very hopeful that lower interest rates will reinvigorate demand in the months ahead. But the transmission of monetary policy always takes some time, so understandably there are only marginal signs that things were turning around by the end of last year.
We continue to expect another 50bp cut in the OCR at the Reserve Bank’s February meeting. The RBNZ was unusually explicit last year in noting that a 50bp cut was its base case, and the evidence of ongoing weakness in activity in today’s survey will certainly not sway the committee towards a smaller move. (The QSBO does appear to have been quite decisive in persuading the RBNZ to start cutting rates last year). Against this, there are some signs of improving momentum in the higher-frequency economic data, and the weaker New Zealand dollar means that imported inflation is likely to be less benign going forward than it was over last year.
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