United States banks are enjoying some relief as unrealized losses on their investment securities decreased in the second quarter of the year in light of dropping interest rates, according to a data analysis from a finance expert at Florida Atlantic University.
United States banks are enjoying some relief as unrealized losses on their investment securities decreased in the second quarter of the year in light of dropping interest rates, according to a data analysis from a finance expert at Florida Atlantic University.
Among the 1,027 banks with more than $1 billion in assets, only 47 had unrealized losses greater than 50% of their capital equity as of June 30, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, the U.S. Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Investment Securities Screener shows.
Aggregate unbooked securities losses for banks decreased to $513 billion this quarter from $516 billion in the first quarter of 2024. For the entire industry, aggregate losses peaked in the third quarter of 2023 at $750 billion.
“The risk from higher interest rates had posed a real threat to the financial health of these banks,” said Rebel Cole, Ph.D., Lynn Eminent Scholar Chaired Professor of Finance in FAU’s College of Business. “This is unambiguously good news for banks as the decrease in the 10-year treasury yield from 4.34% at the end of June to 3.73% currently was equivalent to a 50-basis point rate cut.”
The quarterly U.S. Banks’ Unrealized Losses on Investment Securities Screener, produced as part of the Banking Initiative in FAU’s College of Business, measures banks’ exposure to risk based on their unrealized losses in their investment securities portfolios. To calculate a bank’s risk, Cole uses the most recently available data from quarterly call reports published by the U.S. Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council.
Of the 4,697 banks in the report, Cole focused on 1,027 banks with more than $1 billion in assets to calculate unrealized losses on investment securities and compare those losses to a bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1). A bank that lost half of its CET1 capital would be forced by its regulators to take remedial actions, such as raising new capital or seeking a merger partner; in worst cases, a bank may face closure by the FDIC.
Some larger banks sold underwater securities and realized significant losses, allowing aggregate unbooked losses to decrease overall.
“Banks are not yet in the clear, though this is a lifeline for many of them,” Cole added. “The 10-year treasury yield has been extraordinarily volatile for the past two years as inflation has increased. Banks are also affected by their exposure to uninsured deposits, so the combination of unrealized losses and exposure to uninsured deposits can be particularly pernicious.”
-FAU-