Devex Newswire: Amid culture of fear, NGOs need to brace for battle

It’s a scary time for NGOs — and we’re not just talking about threats to civil society under autocratic regimes such as Russia, China, and elsewhere. We’re talking about the rapidly shrinking civic space in the United States.

Also in today’s edition: The African Development Bank eyes Arab investors — and the result could be a big infusion of money for the continent.

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Don’t panic. Do prepare

Military strategists game out different war scenarios all the time. Some experts say it’s time for NGOs to do the same after a year in which the Trump administration wasn’t exactly civil to civil society, which came under rhetorical and regulatory fire from the White House.

It’s a familiar feeling for many. “We see the same patterns of democratic backsliding and shrinking civic space all over,” says Veronika Móra, director of the Ökotárs foundation in Hungary.

But the U.S. isn’t waging all-out war on NGOs — for now, writes Devex contributor Jessica Abrahams. “We’re not yet Russia, we’re not yet Hungary,” says Yelena Litvinov, cofounder of Stroika, which supports anti-authoritarian movements around the world.

Not yet, but the warning signs are flashing red. That means now is the moment to gird for battle.

“Obviously right now we’re all pushing back against the worst-case scenario,” says Tatyana Margolin, former Eurasia director at the Open Society Foundations, who cofounded Stroika with Litvinov. “But at the same time, we need to learn how to operate in the worst-case scenario.”

For example, think about your money — before the authorities target it. “Today, it costs one dollar to move a dollar to an NGO. Tomorrow, it may cost you $1.25. But in five months it may cost you $5,” Margolin says. “You should be moving all your money right now to your partners, because you have no barriers right now.”

“What are you going to do if you can’t access your bank account tomorrow?” Margolin also points out. “Do you have alternative bank accounts that you can access?”

Another battle-tested strategy? Solidarity with allies. After all, the administration’s attacks have targeted not only individual organizations, but the sector as a whole.

“This is the moment for the sector to be very clear-eyed about what’s possible and really run through how they would react to a number of worst-case scenarios,” Litvinov says. “And we actually find that to be a very empowering process … getting really specific around every possible mode of attack on the work … and then getting very real about ‘what are we going to do?’”

Read: How US nonprofits can defend themselves (Pro)

ICYMI: NGOs say they’re under attack from Trump — and are ready to fight back (Pro)

Related read: What is Trump doing to US nonprofits and philanthropies? (Pro)

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New year, new challenges

Last year was one of hard truths. This year will be one of hard choices, argues development and humanitarian evaluation specialist Alemneh Tadele in an opinion piece for Devex.

He points out the ripple effects of 2025: Humanitarian funding and staff took a severe hit, localization stagnated, the climate fund for loss and damage found itself on the losing end of the spectrum, and the adoption of artificial intelligence has outpaced governance of it.

Tadele poses five questions that will determine whether the sector responds through “reactive adaptation imposed by crisis, or deliberate transformation guided by principle.”

Among them: What to do about a humanitarian system where “U.S. dominance was treated as both a vulnerability and a guarantee. Now the guarantee is gone, and the system must reckon with a new landscape of humanitarian aid delivery,” he writes.

As for AI, he argues that “2026 presents a choice: slow adoption until governance catches up, or accept an accountability deficit as the cost of efficiency. The sector chose speed in 2025. Whether it chooses responsibility in 2026 remains uncertain.”

Uncertainty is, of course, the name of the aid game. “The question for 2026 is not whether the aid system will adapt — it has no alternative,” Tadele writes. “The question is whether adaptation will be chaotic or deliberate, guided by the hard lessons of 2025.”

Opinion: These 5 questions will define the future of aid in 2026

The Gulf goes to the Gulf of Guinea

For the first time, the heads of the Arab Coordination Group, or ACG, will make a joint visit to the African Development Bank’s headquarters in Abidjan on Tuesday for a meeting aimed at deepening Africa-Arab cooperation, my colleague Ayenat Mersie tells me.

The ACG is an alliance of 10 Arab development finance institutions, including the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, the Islamic Development Bank, the Qatar Fund for Development, and the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa. That last one is notable: It was led until recently by Sidi Ould Tah, who took the helm at AfDB in September.

Tah’s Gulf ties were widely viewed as a major asset during his election campaign and following his landslide victory. His background has fueled expectations that he will push to deepen the bank’s engagement with Arab financiers at a time when Western donors, particularly the United States, are pulling back.

That shift was on display at the recent replenishment for the bank’s concessional arm, the African Development Fund. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants to yank $555 million from the fund, and although the U.S. attended the pledging meeting, it was “not in a position to pledge,” a bank official said. Gulf-backed institutions stepped up, with BADEA pledging $800 million and the OPEC Fund saying it would contribute up to $2 billion.

Next week’s meetings will focus on deepening these partnerships, particularly within the priority areas of energy access, climate resilience, food security, regional integration, and private sector-led growth.

There is serious money potentially on the table. The Arab Coordination Group has said it aims to channel up to $50 billion into Africa. The big question is how much of that actually gets disbursed and how much flows through the AfDB. Stay tuned for updates on how it goes.

From coalition to cash

Ayenat details another effort where the Arab Coordination Group is playing a major role in investing in Africa — this time in the form of the Global Flagship Initiative for Food Security, which aims to combat food insecurity and land degradation.

After a year spent lining up donors, partners, and political backing, the initiative is ready to move from talk to action. Launched in late 2024 alongside the United Nations desertification talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the 90-plus-member platform connects governments, financiers, researchers, and companies around food security in dryland and desertification-prone regions.

Its first funding round, expected to open this month, will target the Horn of Africa, where land degradation and hunger are deeply intertwined.

Backed by a powerful coalition including the Arab Coordination Group — which has signaled support of up to $10 billion — the initiative aims to channel money toward scalable, evidence-based projects and draw in private capital.

“We are not looking for money for ourselves. We are looking for money for implementation,” says Conrad Rein, the initiative’s secretary. With its first call now imminent, the flagship is betting that coordination — and speed — can finally translate ambition into impact.

Read: Arab-backed food security platform moves toward first funding round

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Africa gets creative

Agriculture and manufacturing tend to get the lion’s share of attention when it comes to boosting jobs in Africa. But one area is overlooked, and it shouldn’t be: the continent’s creative economy, such as its booming music industry.

“Africa’s cultural and creative industries already generate over $45 billion in income and support more than 15 million jobs,” writes James Ladi Williams, founder and president of Akadá, a Washington, D.C.-based strategy advisory firm.

Those figures have the potential to skyrocket, he writes in an opinion piece for Devex, noting that the continent’s creative industries could drive roughly 20 million jobs and $20 billion in additional annual revenues.

Williams singles out the World Bank to recognize this lucrative area of investment, urging it to create an “Ease of Doing Music Index.”

“We should not underestimate the power that an analytical asset such as an Ease of Doing Music Index can have in changing … risk perception and incentivizing private investment in Africa’s music sector,” he writes, adding that such indicators could “champion bolder measures that treat creative work as an investable economic asset rather than a hobby.”

Opinion: To solve Africa’s jobs crisis, measure music like manufacturing

In other news

Billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates has transferred nearly $7.9 billion to Pivotal Philanthropies Foundation, a nonprofit founded by former wife Melinda French Gates, making it one of the world’s largest private foundations. [The Times of India]

The U.N. top court will begin to hear today a landmark case accusing Myanmar of genocide against Rohingya Muslims. [Al Jazeera]

The world’s richest 1% burned through their annual carbon budget in just 10 days, while the richest 0.1% took only three days, according to Oxfam. [The Guardian]

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