A ‘city-killer’ asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile.
Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat to Earth.
The international astronomy community continues to closely watch asteroid 2024 YR4, which is no longer visible through ground-based telescopes until 2028.
In May, a team led by Andy Rivkin, with Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Maryland, used the James Webb Space Telescope’s (JWST) Near-Infrared Camera to hone in on 2024 YR4.
JWST data, along with expert analysis from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, have refined the asteroid’s orbit, increasing the chances of a crash with the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%.
In February, the odds of a Moon impact were about 1.7%.
However, NASA said if the asteroid does collide with the Moon, it will not alter its orbit. The Moon is covered in crater impacts from other space collisions.
Previous observations by JWST helped determine 2024 YR4 is about 200 feet wide, or about the height of a 15-story building, Rivkin wrote in an April blog post for NASA.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has dipped behind the Sun and beyond Webb’s view for now.