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The Senate is moving toward a test vote tonight to break a filibuster on a new GOP spending plan. This test vote is not to be underestimated. If the Senate breaks a filibuster on the test vote tonight, it’s likely the government shutdown is just a few days from ending.
Here’s what we expect:
Sometime between 8 and 10 pm EST, the Senate will take the test vote to break the filibuster on the revised GOP spending package. The revamped bill re-opens the government through at least January 30. That buys lawmakers time to work on individual spending bills. However, the package includes full spending bills until next fall for the Department of Agriculture, veterans and military construction programs plus Congress.
It’s about the math. Sixty yeas are needed to break a filibuster Republicans believe they can get a group of Democrats to side with them to at least break the filibuster.
SENATE COULD TAKE TEST VOTE ON NEW SPENDING BILL AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 7: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) attends a news conference following a weekly Democratic policy luncheon on Capitol Hill on October 7, 2025 in Washington, DC. The government remains shut down after Congress failed to reach a funding deal. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
FOX is told to keep an eye on these senators who caucus with the Democrats: Sens. Tim Kaine, D-Va., Mark Warner, D-Va., Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., John Fetterman, D-Pa., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., Angus King, I-Maine, and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H. Also keep an eye on Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., has expressed interest in opening the government.
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In addition, it is unclear if Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., could vote yes. Paul previously voted to block the old GOP funding plan. A potential yea or nay vote by Paul could determine how many Democrats are needed to break the filibuster. After all, it’s about the math.
Voting to break the filibuster does not necessarily mean that these senators would eventually vote for the underlying bill. However, Republicans can haul the freight on their own with a simple majority and won’t need any Democrats for final passage.
What happens if the Senate scores 60 yeas? By the book, it would take until NEXT weekend to get to a final vote on the bill. But that probably doesn’t happen.
There are two schools of thought:
One school says that Democrats are frustrated with one another and just want to get out of the Capitol. So it’s possible they could forge a time agreement and vote on final passage of the bill overnight tonight or maybe during the daylight hours on Monday.
The US Capitol in Washington, DC, on Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
The other school says Democrats are so mad over the health care capitulation that they require the Senate to burn significant time over the next few days and pass the bill mid-week.
Some Democrats are outraged that their colleagues may help out the GOP and re-open the government – without an ironclad agreement to re-up expiring Obamacare subsidies. This chasm will spark a Democratic civil war. House Democrats fumed at Senate Democrats for helping the GOP avoid a shutdown in March. This battle will only intensify between those who support the test vote tonight and those who were dug in on Obamacare.
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Moreover, it’s entirely possible that Democrats blocked government funding for 40 days – and their own party threw them under the bus without a solution to the Obamacare problem.
However, Democrats pushing for the Obamacare assistance may have lost the battle – but could yet win the war. They have successfully put the health care affordability issue on the radar and could force Republicans and President Trump to address it. If they don’t Democrats may have secured a crucial issue ahead of next year’s midterms.
Here’s another factor:
Some rank-and-file Democrats are fuming at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. Liberals raged at Schumer when he sided with the GOP in the spring. Now some think Schumer overcorrected and went too far this time. This could have consequences for leadership elections down the road.
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So what changed for some Democrats?
The pressure of the shutdown was beginning to mount. It was a toxic combination of aviation delays (with the holidays looming), air traffic controllers off their jobs, federal workers missing paychecks, no distribution of SNAP benefits, Capitol Police officers and Congressional aides working without pay… you name it. Plus, some Democrats scored spending priorities important to them in the appropriations bills tacked on to the package. That’s what makes this measure different from the one which Democrats have blocked since late September. And, a new funding deadline of January 30 gives lawmakers the chance to finish the other spending bills and get their big asks into those bills. So, it was a combination of things which altered the equation.