Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, gestures as he addresses the media during a press conference at the Bank of England in London on Aug. 1, 2024.
Alberto Pezzali | Via Reuters
LONDON — The British pound tumbled more than 1% against the U.S. dollar and euro on Thursday after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested more positive inflation data could lead the central bank toward a more aggressive approach to interest rate cuts.
Sterling was down 1.16% to $1.3113 at 4:45 p.m. in London, slightly paring losses of more than 1.3% but still hovering near its lowest intraday level since Sept. 12. The drop put sterling on course for its steepest daily decline against the greenback for more than 20 months, according to a CNBC calculation of LSEG data.
Bailey told the Guardian newspaper in an interview published on Thursday that the BOE could become “a bit more activist” in its approach to rate cuts if inflation developments continued to be good.
He also said he was encouraged that cost of living pressures had not been as persistent as previously thought, according to the Guardian.
Pound vs dollar.
The pound was buoyed following the BOE’s monetary policy meeting on Sept. 19, as British policymakers struck a more hawkish tone than those at the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. It also found support over the summer from the decisive victory of the Labour party in the early July general election, with investors eyeing a period of political stability and the potential for pro-business reforms.
The upcoming budget, due to be announced at the end of October, had already caused some to question whether optimism around U.K. assets can hold, with political leaders repeatedly suggesting that tax hikes and public spending discipline will be required to meet a budget shortfall.
The pound meanwhile dropped 1.1%. against the euro Thursday, trading at its lowest level since Sept. 20. The drop put sterling on course for its steepest daily decline against the greenback for more than 20 months, according to a CNBC calculation of LSEG data.
That came despite several analysts hiking their outlooks for the pace of European Central Bank rate cuts this year, after euro zone and German inflation prints both came in below 2% this week.
Bank of America Global Research and Moody’s Analytics were among the teams to say they now expected a 25 basis point rate cut from the ECB at its upcoming October meeting, along with a follow-up reduction at its next and final gathering of the year in December. BOA Global Research said it now saw the ECB’s deposit rate at 2% by June 2025, a quarter earlier than its previous forecast.
The Bank of England held its key rate in September, after cutting it by 25 basis points in August to 5%. During the September meeting, the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee expressed concerns about services inflation and wage growth, despite headline inflation hovering near its 2% target.
Money market pricing on Thursday suggested a high probability of two more 25-basis-point cuts from the BOE this year across its remaining meetings.
“One simple interpretation of the Governor’s comments is that it could now take an upside surprise to inflation for the MPC not to cut rates back-to-back in November and December. Previously the guidance suggested that the burden of proof was on inflation to surprise to the downside for such a shift away from the “gradual” pace of easing,” Shreyas Gopal, FX strategist at Deutsche Bank, said in a research note.
Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, said the “pound correction” may extend to the 1.3 mark in the near term as a “probably long-due dovish repricing” meets higher U.S. dollar swap rates, he added.
Inflation risks
Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank London, said in a Thursday note that Bailey’s recent comments on the potential for more aggressive rate cuts had “deeply shaken” support for sterling — but noted that the interview also featured the governor discussing potential risks to the inflationary outlook from a spike in crude oil prices, following the latest flare in Middle East tensions.
Bailey told the Guardian: “Geopolitical concerns are very serious… There are obviously stresses and the real issue then is how they might interact with some still quite stretched markets in places.”
The central bank had been helped by not having to deal with major oil price hikes so far, but it was watching the situation “extremely closely” for potential impacts, Bailey said.
“My sense from all the conversations I have with counterparts in the region, is that there is, for the moment, a strong commitment to keep the market stable,” he continued.
Rabobank’s Foley said Thursday: “While the market clearly latched onto the [rate cut] part of [Bailey’s] statement, the inflation risks will remain key. Even when the potential impact of a Middle Eastern escalation is overlooked, U.K. inflation risks still suggest that the BoE could be slower to cut rates than several of its peers.”
— CNBC’s Ganesh Rao contributed to this story.