The early data we are seeing so far this year makes a couple of things clear. First, there has been a noticeable decline in student interest in the United States, and especially so over the last few months. By some measures, roughly a third of students planning to study in the US now intend to defer their study plans in the wake of a flurry of policy shifts and other administrative actions. Nearly another third say that they no longer wish to study in America.
Those very recent developments appear to contributing to another pattern in the first half of this year: the high-level search data that we can see, along with anecdotal reports from counsellors and others across the sector, make it clear that some portion of that student interest is shifting to the United Kingdom.
Speaking to Times Higher Education, Study Group Director of External Affairs Ruth Arnold said, “Global politics are shifting student choices. With stricter visa rules in Australia, Canada and the US and unease over recent US policies, more students are turning to the UK as a safer, more stable option.”
New data released by the UK Home Office this week reinforces the point. International students lodged 18,500 student visa applications for the United Kingdom in May 2025 alone, a 19% increase over May 2024.
The increased visa application volume becomes even more significant when we set a wider frame from January to May 2025. International students lodged a total of 76,400 visa applications in the first five months of 2025, representing a nearly 30% increase compared to the same period in 2024.
“Sponsored study visas follow strong seasonal patterns, peaking in August each year, ahead of the academic year (with a second smaller peak in December),” adds the Home Office. Indeed, we are about to enter the peak filing period for 2025 with the bulk of visa applications for the calendar year typically filed between July and September. In both 2023 and 2024, nearly two-thirds of all student visa applications in the UK (+/-65%) were filed in that July-September window.
There is little reason to think that that pattern will not hold true this year. And that, in combination with the year-to-date surge in visa application numbers, means that UK universities could be on track to record application volumes considerably above recent-year highs for 2025.
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