U.S. stocks are rallying, but beware headwinds

There’s a lightness in the air on Wall Street. Stocks have been rising throughout the week. The S&P 500 has just ended its fourth straight session in the green, giving it a 4.54% bump so far over the past four days.

Tariffs are looking less thorny, for sure, as the U.S. negotiates agreements with other countries. But that’s not to say it’ll be a perfectly smooth path ahead.

For instance, despite its agreement with the U.S., China is still withholding rare earth metals, crucial for important industries such as defense and energy, from being exported to the U.S.

Similarly, even as India negotiates a deal with America, U.S. President Donald Trump appears to want more than just levies on U.S. imports cut. Trump told Apple CEO Tim Cook he doesn’t want the Cupertino-based company “building in India.” It’s hard to imagine India agreeing to keep Apple’s manufacturing out — or for The Big Apple to actually start producing Apple products.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seemed cognizant of such complications and warned on Thursday that “supply shocks” could be “more frequent, and potentially more persistent” in the future.

The sense of buoyancy in markets, then, could be a head rush — evoked by the U.S.-China trade deal over the weekend — that could dissipate once the gravity of the economic headwinds takes over again.

Powell warns of potential supply shocks
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday at a Fed conference that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher, given that “inflation could be more volatile going forward” because of the possibility of “more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks” to the economy. Powell didn’t name Trump’s tariffs, but flagged risks around them at the Fed’s May meeting.

S&P clocks fourth day of wins
On Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 0.41%, its fourth positive session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.65% but the Nasdaq Composite underperformed, dropping 0.18%. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Friday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 hovered around the flatline the country reported that its economy shrank 0.2% during the first quarter, steeper than the 0.1% expected in a Reuters poll of economists — and the first time it’s contracted in a year.

‘A little problem with Tim Cook’: Trump
While discussing on Thursday Washington’s trade relations with India, Trump said that he doesn’t want Apple CEO Tim Cook to build factories in India. “I had a little problem with Tim Cook yesterday,” Trump said. “I said to him, ‘my friend, I treated you very good. You’re coming here with $500 billion, but now I hear you’re building all over India.’ I don’t want you building in India.”

Rare earth exports from China still blocked
China has temporarily paused export restrictions targeting 28 American companies following the trade agreement reached by Beijing and the Trump administration over the weekend. But it is continuing to block exports of seven rare earth metals to the United States. Those metals are essential for the U.S.’ defense, energy and automotive industries.

Putin and Trump skip peace meeting
Russia leader Vladimir Putin and his White House counterpart Trump opted to skip Ukraine-Russia peace talks in Turkey. Responding to the diplomatic slight as he arrived in Ankara on Thursday to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the delegation of lower-ranking officials that Russia had sent to Turkey showed Moscow wasn’t serious about talks.

[PRO] U.K.-U.S. deal to benefit European automaker
British businesses are still hashing out exactly what the recently-unveiled U.K.-U.S. trade deal means for them. The European Union is yet to strike its own deal. Despite this, one automaker from the bloc’s biggest economy is about to see benefits due to its U.K. presence.

Japan assets experienced record inflows in April as investors fled U.S. markets — and analysts expect the Asian country to stay attractive

Overseas investors bought 8.21 trillion yen ($56.6 billion) worth of Japanese equities and long-term bonds in April, according to government data. The net inflows were the largest for a calendar month since Japan’s finance ministry started collecting data in 1996, according to Morningstar.

Japanese assets are generally considered a haven, whose appeal rose as the “sell-U.S.” narrative gained ground in April, said Rashmi Garg, senior portfolio manager at Al Dhabi Capital.

Furthermore, Trump’s policy flip-flops could sustain interest in Japanese assets “even if it is not as a strong as the April level,” said Vasu Menon, OCBC’s managing director of the investment strategy team. Japan’s ongoing talks with the U.S. with regard to tariffs have also raised some optimism over cutting the 24% “reciprocal” tariffs on Japan, Menon said.