South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, this week ordered a series of high-level arrests and dismissals of political and army figures as tensions between him and Vice President Riek Machar – a main opposition figure – threaten to reach boiling point.
Since Tuesday, soldiers of the South Sudanese army have surrounded Machar’s home in Juba, according to members of the vice president’s party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM/IO). Kiir heads the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).
Fighting between the two exploded into a civil war that rocked the young country beginning in 2013. Although calm returned after a peace deal in 2018, analysts said that agreement is now under threat from renewed tensions between Kiir and Machar. That hostility follows an eruption of violence in the northeastern state of Upper Nile thought to be over rumours of a planned forced disarmament of local groups.
South Sudan is Africa’s youngest country after it broke away from Sudan in 2011. Although rich in oil, the country of 11 million people is Africa’s second poorest nation and is grappling with a humanitarian crisis as a result of conflict and poverty.
Here’s what we know about the latest rise in tensions:
What is the history of conflict in South Sudan?
Shortly after independence from Sudan in 2011, the country’s independence movement, led by the SPLM, began to splinter.
Political tensions between the SPLM factions came to the fore, exacerbated by ethnic differences as factions aligned according to their tribes.The dominance of the Dinka ethnic group in the country has historically been a source of animosity with other groups.
In 2013, South Sudan descended into full-scale war when Kiir, a Dinka, fired Machar as vice president after escalating rows between them. Machar is from the Nuer ethnic group, South Sudan’s second largest.
Kiir also fired the entire cabinet after some ministers voiced discontent with his leadership. Machar challenged this move, calling Kiir a dictator, and went on to establish the rebel movement, the SPLM/IO, which fought against Kiir’s South Sudanese army.
How did the 2018 peace process unfold?
After five years of fighting, which displaced more than a million people and killed more than 400,000, the two warring factions agreed to talks along with a host of other groups that had joined each side during the war. They ultimately signed the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) after several proposed peace frameworks had failed.
The peace deal was facilitated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) trading bloc. It was meant to see the two warring factions unite their armies under a single unit, write a new constitution, prepare for general elections, organise a census and disarm all other armed groups. None of those reforms has been instituted, and violence from local or armed ethnic groups has continued intermittently in parts of the country.
In May, some hold-out groups were invited to new peace talks, the Tumaini Peace Initiative, led by Kenya. Parties promised to renounce violence. However, Machar’s SPLM/IO opposed the process, saying it could affect some of the terms agreed in the 2018 peace deal.
Why have tensions risen again?
Tensions began to flare up again between Kiir and Machar when fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and a group that Human Rights Watch (HRW) identified as an “armed youth militia” erupted in Nasir County in southern Upper Nile on February 14.
Rumours of a forced disarmament plan of other groups by government troops had caused concern within the local armed group, HRW said, but it remains unclear what exactly started the fighting.
HRW said the South Sudanese army attacked positions of the unnamed armed youth group, leading to a series of deadly confrontations since then. At least five civilians have been killed as a result of the fighting, according to the Radio Tamazuj station. A peacekeeper with the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) was also wounded in the clashes, the mission reported.
UNMISS, which first deployed to South Sudan in 2011, added that the warring parties, which it also did not name, used “heavy weaponry” and fighting had also been reported in Western Equatoria State in the southwestern part of the country.
However, at a news conference this week, South Sudan’s information minister, Michael Makuei Lueth, blamed the White Army, a Nuer armed group operating in Upper Nile that he said had been the first to attack army garrisons in Nasir County. Lueth said that group was working with the SPLM/IO.
“We are calling on them to control their forces. … The government is in full control of the situation, and we are in the process of addressing the situation in Nasir,” he said.
Who has been arrested or fired?
This week, Kiir also fired or ordered the arrests of several high-profile politicians and members of the army linked to his deputy:
- On Tuesday, the army arrested General Gabriel Duop Lam, a Machar loyalist and deputy army chief. Later on the same day, the army surrounded Machar’s home, essentially putting him under house arrest.
- On Wednesday, Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol, also allied with Machar, was arrested along with his bodyguards and members of his family.
- Soldiers also stormed the office of Peacebuilding Minister Stephen Par Kuol on Thursday, detaining him. The Reuters news agency reported that the minister was released early on Friday.
- On Friday, Kiir’s office fired Monica Achol Abel, the South Sudanese ambassador to Kenya.
In a statement on Tuesday, Pal Mai Deng, spokesman for the SPLM/IO party who also serves as the minister for water resources, said Kiir’s recent actions had “eroded trust and confidence” among the parties to the peace agreement.
“This [Kiir’s] action violates the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan. … This act puts the entire agreement at risk,” Deng said.
Kenyan President William Ruto, who is leading the Tumaini peace process, acknowledged the escalating tensions in a statement on Thursday and revealed that he’d spoken to both Kiir and Machar.
“I implored both leaders to engage in dialogue towards fostering peace in the country, even as the region works towards the stabilisation of South Sudan under IGAD’s Strategic Framework,” Ruto said. “I also informed the two leaders that regional consultations are underway to determine the best path forward for the situation in South Sudan.”
In a joint statement, IGAD country representatives in Juba said they were alarmed at the Nasir County violence, which they said threatens to undermine gains from the peace deal and exacerbate an already dire humanitarian situation.
“We call upon all the parties and their affiliate groups to immediately cease hostilities and exercise maximum restraint. We emphasise the paramount importance of upholding the Permanent Ceasefire and adhering to the provisions of the R-ARCSS,” the statement read.
Similarly, the embassies of Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union called for an end to the Upper Nile violence in a joint statement.
“[We] deplore the hostilities in Upper Nile State which included significant loss of lives. We are also concerned by reports of detentions of senior military and civilian officials. We join our IGAD counterparts in calling for immediate cessation of hostilities and for all parties and their affiliates to exercise maximum restraint,” the representatives said.
Is the 2018 peace agreement in jeopardy?
There are fears among political observers that if the current political infighting continues, the Upper Nile violence could spread further.
Analysts said tensions in Juba are likely to keep delaying crucial tasks ahead for the young country, including the signing of a permanent constitution and the holding of elections. Although polls were originally planned for December, Kiir’s government postponed them, citing funding challenges and “unpreparedness”.
Pro-democracy activist Mohammed Akot criticised both the SPLM and SPLM/IO for failing to make progress in the peace process because of “a lack of political will”. That stance and the recent arrests, which he described as a “clear violation” by the ruling party, threaten the 2018 peace deal, Akot told Al Jazeera.
“If the disputes are not resolved, particularly in Nasir County, and if the parties do not commit to fully implementing all security arrangements, the risk of renewed conflict will remain, threatening the country’s stability. Genuine political commitment is now required to salvage the peace process,” he said.
Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) issued a report this week saying it faces a $412m funding shortfall to address the country’s humanitarian crisis, caused by years of conflict, climate change and general economic deprivation.
Furthermore, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said last week that its work providing food to malnourished children could cease after the US cut foreign aid worldwide.
The IRC said it has assisted 1.5 million people in the country since it started working in then-southern Sudan in 1989. War in neighbouring Sudan has also pushed more than a million refugees across the border, worsening conditions.
More than 7.6 million are facing food shortages in the country while one in every four children is malnourished, according to the WFP.