The chances of Earth being hit by an asteroid in 2032 have roughly doubled – though we are almost certainly fine.
On 22 December, 2032, the Earth will be visited by an asteroid discovered last year and named 2024 YR. The rock is up to 90 metres across.
As it does, there is a chance that it will collide with Earth, potentially causing disaster as it does.
That chance has now been revised up by Nasa’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies or Cneos. A week ago, predictions had suggested that there was a roughly 1 per cent chance we would be hit by the rock – but it now stands at 2.3 per cent, or a one-in-43 chance.
Nasa says that it will continue to study the asteroid and that it expects the chance of disaster will be revised down as it learns more about it and its path.
“There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in,” the space agency said in a statement last week.
The asteroid known as 2024 YR was first spotted on 27 December last year. It came to the attention of the world a few days later, when it was added to Nasa’s list of asteroids that are near-Earth and are in danger of colliding with our planet.
At the moment, the asteroid has been given a ranking of three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures how much danger is posed by a rock from 0 to 10, with the latter marking the end of civilisation.
But a number of asteroids have recently been given high rankings that have eventually been revised down as astronomers have learnt more about their path.
There are a host of programmes looking at ways to direct any truly hazardous asteroids, which include slamming spacecraft into them or attempting to move them of course with nuclear blasts. For now, however, the world might be less prepared than it should be for a dangerous strike, experts have suggested.