First Impressions: NZ business confidence, January 2025

12:08 January 30 2025

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Business confidence eased from its recent highs, and concerns about rising costs are emerging again.

Key results (January 2025) 

Business confidence: 54.3 (Prev: 62.3) 

Expectations for own trading activity: 45.8 (Prev: 50.3) 

Activity vs same month one year ago: 0.2 (Prev: 0.0) 

Inflation expectations: 2.67% (Prev: 2.63%) 

Pricing intentions: 45.7 (Prev: 42.7) 

 

Business confidence fell in the first survey of 2025. General sentiment about the economy fell from 62.3 to 54.3, while firms’ own activity expectations fell from 50.3 to 45.8. Both of these are still relatively high readings – coming off what were at or near ten-year highs in December – but they go against the run of strong gains in recent months. 

It’s not entirely surprising that we’d see some pullback on these forward-looking measures – the gap between expectations and recent performance had become unusually wide in recent surveys. The startlingly weak GDP figures that were published in December may have also worked to bring those lofty expectations back down to earth. 

The January results were mixed across sectors, with a notably sharp drop in confidence in services, against further gains in retailing, manufacturing and construction. Notably, the latter has become the most upbeat sector in this survey, which may reflect the fact that it’s relatively sensitive to interest rate cycles. 

There was also a further rise in the various inflation measures of the survey. Expected inflation for the year ahead rose slightly to 2.67%, while firms’ own pricing intentions have risen in six of the last seven months. We’re also seeing a rise in the number of firms who expect their costs to rise in the months ahead, at least some of which will reflect the weaker New Zealand dollar.

The December quarter CPI showed annual inflation holding at 2.2%, still slightly north of the Reserve Bank’s target midpoint. Global disinflation played a significant part in reducing New Zealand’s overall inflation rate last year, but that force is likely to be less helpful in the year ahead. With that in mind, the RBNZ will be right to step more cautiously as it moves closer to what it regards as a ‘neutral’ level of the OCR. The case for outright ‘easy’ monetary conditions is not clear.

 

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