By Madan Sabnavis
We are aware of the fact that a sudden rise of a superstar, like say Virat Kohli in cricket, can lead to hordes of men donning the pointed beard. This is the starting of a trend. Can we call it an epidemic? Probably yes, as this is how such fashion plays out, and this is how companies create trends. This was broadly the idea of how we reach tipping points in life, wrote Malcolm Gladwell almost two and a half decades ago, when he explored reasons why ideas turn into social epidemics. He is back now with a new book, titled Revenge of the Tipping Point. There are certain turning points in life when things pivot to a larger story. Therefore, there is a super-story and a super-spreader, which are the two elements used in this book.
The themes are similar to what one came across in The Tipping Point, as he uses psychology and observation backed by research to explain things that may not be too obvious to the reader. Each story of his has a takeaway which will make the reader say—of course, it has to be this way. Gladwell’s perspective looks at the darker consequences of various phenomena. It includes the surge in bank robberies in the eighties in Los Angeles, the Medicare fraud epidemic in Miami, and the opioid crisis in the United States, etc. In each case he explores how various subjects like individuals, institutions, and environmental factors create tipping points that manipulate or exacerbate societal problems. He consciously draws parallels between criminal epidemics, institutional failures, and examines how small influencers and seemingly minor decisions can lead to widespread, sometimes devastating, consequences.
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For instance, Gladwell talks of how the Covid pandemic started. He talks of a biotech firm having a meeting of all global leaders in Boston and logically explains how one person probably started the spread. He had come from China to begin with, but did not know that he was carrying the virus. A successful presentation with hugs to colleagues ensured that most of the staff returned home carrying the virus and spread it ahead. This is an example of a physical epidemic. The description could be that of the author, but the conclusions drawn are important.
On similar lines, Gladwell has some various interesting conclusions. Just like the theory of 10,000 hours of practice of learning in any profession makes one an expert, so is it when there are opinions floated. If 25% is veering in one direction, the majority follows. This is an observed fact, which is stylised by the author. Similarly, with 30% or 1/3 of members of the board of directors being women, they are able to put more weight on decisions taken. Gladwell examines this concept in the context of corporate boards, where having at least three women on a board transforms group functionality by reducing tokenism and fostering collaboration. This, he calls the magic third. So, whether it is 25% or a third, the conclusion drawn is that we do not need a majority to turn the decision. This also will resonate at the electoral level in India where often the winning team may not need to get more than a third of the popular votes!
Try and answer this question. Why do Ivy League schools care so much about sports? It is not all schools, but definitely Harvard. He gets into the process of selection of students and where the predilection to sports leads to the institution having special quota. This, along with the facilities provided, makes sure that the college is able to excel in every field. His takeaway is that the effect of lower entry criteria for athletes is not to take in disadvantaged students, but rather to tilt to the wealthy elite. This follows from the fact that to be a young tennis champion one would need to have parents with the time and wealth to support development of such children. The rather distressing side to the admission process is that there are relatively few seats for outsiders as there are fixed proportions for different categories, with merit being only one of them. The acronym of ALDC holds with privileges being given to athletes, legacies, dean’s interest and children of faculty. In short, one can say that there should not be disappointment in case one does not make it to the school with high marks.
The section where he explores the impact of media on social change is quite an eye-opener. The famous serial Will and Grace brought about the acceptance of homosexuality, which was a taboo earlier. Similarly he shows that a 1978 TV series, Holocaust: The Story of the Weiss Family, made people aware of the holocaust. Otherwise it was a foreign issue and largely unheard of in the USA. Not surprisingly, the number of memorials and museums focusing on the holocaust sprung up after it became popular on TV—a case of the overstory and the super-spreader!
Some of the case studies of Gladwell can be unsettling, especially when he talks of the Medicare fraud in Miami. As individuals we do see how hospitals in India in metro cities push everyone to undergo procedures that are very expensive and probably not necessary, while those in other cities or areas do not suggest the same. It is all about money and the insurance cover which make a difference. In a similar manner, Gladwell explores another anomaly seen across different states in the USA where opioid use was prevalent. Illinois had a low rate of opioid abuse relative to Indiana. The reason was that Indiana, like many states, did not do any monitoring and hence salespersons from Big Pharma companies came in and pushed the drug OxyContin. This made access easy for those taking drugs. Illinois, by contrast, ensured that there was a prescription given in triplicate—one each for the pharmacist, patient and regulatory agency. The three-tiered process became the overstory or governing idea of opioids being different, which made physicians pause and think before prescribing them.
If one is a fan of Gladwell, these stories will excite the reader as it sounds like vintage stuff. The mix of psychology with facts is quite alluring for anyone to draw conclusions, which the author does with some élan. His style is one that blends history, science, and narrative to reveal how subtle societal changes can snowball into transformative shifts. Some of the ideas presented here may sound repetitive, but then this holds for any author who talks about any theory or ideology—which in this case is the tipping point.
Madan Sabnavis is chief economist, Bank of Baroda.
Book details:
Title: Revenge of the Tipping Point: Overstories, Superspreaders and the Rise of Social Engineering
Author: Malcolm Gladwell
Publisher: Hachette
Number of pages: 368
Price: Rs 799