On October 19, the US Space Command reported that the Intelsat 33e satellite had broken up into roughly 20 pieces, although the cause of the breakup remains unknown. The incident reignited concerns about the accumulation of space debris orbiting Earth, exacerbating fears of the Kessler Syndrome becoming a reality.
“The size of the debris we are tracking ranges from small fragments roughly the size of a softball to larger pieces up to the size of a car door,” said Bill Therien, chief technology officer at ExoAnalytic Solutions, as reported by SpaceNews according to LadBible. “The majority of the tracked objects are on the smaller end of that spectrum, which contributes to the difficulty of consistently observing all the debris pieces,” he noted.
The exact amount of debris could be higher, as tracking all objects is an immense challenge due to their size and the limitations of current technology.
The phenomenon known as the Kessler Syndrome, first proposed in 1978 by NASA scientists Donald Kessler and Burton Cour-Palais, predicts that increases in the number of objects sent into space will lead to collisions and catastrophic chain reactions in low Earth orbit. These collisions would create debris, causing more collisions in a cascade effect. If such a scenario unfolds, it could render space unusable.
“The Kessler Syndrome is going to come true. If the probability of a collision is so great that we can’t put a satellite in space, then we’re in trouble,” warned John L. Crassidis, a professor of innovation and space debris expert at the University at Buffalo, New York, according to LadBible.
According to CNN, since the dawn of spaceflight in 1957, there have been more than 650 “break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation,” including incidents where satellites have been lost through accidental collisions and deliberate destruction during anti-satellite tests. In 2021, Russia launched a missile against one of its own satellites as part of a weapons test, creating more than 1,500 traceable pieces of debris and highlighting the dangers of military actions in space.
Currently, there are more than 10,000 active satellites orbiting the planet, with approximately 6,800 of them belonging to Elon Musk’s Starlink broadband network, which plans to launch more than 40,000 satellites. This proliferation of satellites is making the orbital environment increasingly crowded, heightening the risk of collisions. According to LadBible, the risks of debris and cascading crashes could continue to rise as companies like SpaceX and Amazon push forward with orbital projects that call for large numbers of satellites.
Congestion in orbit is hazardous not only to astronauts but also to satellites and space-based technologies that power everyday lives, including GPS tools, broadband services, high-speed internet, and television. If satellites collide or go offline and replacements cannot be launched due to overcrowded space, critical services will fail, and a chain reaction of collisions could quickly change life on Earth. As reported by CNN, the loss of satellites would cause massive internet outages, and without satellites in the sky, phone networks would go down.
Experts emphasize the need for international cooperation to establish binding regulations to mitigate the risks posed by space junk. “I think the biggest concern is the lack of regulation. I think having some norms and guidelines that are put forward by the industry will help a lot,” said Dr. Vishnu Reddy, a professor of planetary sciences at the University of Arizona in Tucson, according to CNN.
Active measures to safely track and remove debris from low Earth orbit are being researched and developed, and some of these measures have already been deployed. For instance, the European Space Agency is developing the Clearsat-1 satellite in collaboration with Swiss startup ClearSpace, as reported by Universe Today. Such initiatives aim to reduce the amount of debris by capturing and deorbiting defunct satellites.
However, the challenge remains immense. The vast number of objects in space, including more than 40,500 pieces of debris longer than 10 centimeters and millions of smaller fragments, as estimated by the European Space Agency, make tracking and mitigating threats exceedingly difficult. “Even with today’s best sensors, there are limits to what can be reliably ‘seen’ or tracked, and smaller space debris is often untrackable,” said Bob Hall, director of special projects at COMSPOC Corp., according to CNN.
This article was written in collaboration with generative AI company Alchemiq