A woman and a baby look out of a window of a train in Kyiv, Ukraine.
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Four years of war between Russia and Ukraine are beginning to take their toll on the countries’ demographics as the conflict puts women off — or prevents them — from starting or expanding their families.
While the effects of that broad-based hesitancy to have children might not be immediately apparent, a decline in the birth rate can have far-reaching consequences for economies and societies further down the track.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24, 2022, Ukraine’s fertility rate — the average number of births per woman — has plummeted, exacerbated by the war, the loss of partners and spouses in the fighting, and family separation and mass emigration.
In 2021, Ukraine’s total fertility rate stood at 1.22 but this has since dropped to 1.00 in 2025, according to United Nations population data. Some have cited a more dire metric, with the First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, warning in December that the fertility rate in the country had plunged to 0.8–0.9 children per woman, with the war and insecurity across Ukraine causing this “critical decline.”
For a society to replace itself from one generation to the next, without relying on migration, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is necessary.
Russia, too, has also seen a longer-term trend downwards in its fertility rate exacerbated by the war. In 2021, Russia’s fertility rate was 1.51 but by 2025, it had dropped to 1.37 children per woman, down from 1.4 recorded the year before.
Ongoing trend
Ukraine and Russia aren’t alone in experiencing declining fertility and birth rates — the trend can be seen in a variety of European and Asia countries — and the decreases can be down to several factors, from career and lifestyle choices to economic constraints.
A woman carries a baby as she reacts after evacuating from Russian troop-occupied Kupiansk town in a bus convoy, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, on the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine May 30, 2022. Picture taken May 30, 2022.
Ivan Alvarado | Reuters
But four years of war appear to have played a big part in deterring or preventing women in Ukraine from having children, while in Russia, women seem resistant to repeated calls from the Kremlin, and President Vladimir Putin, to have larger families.
Declining birth rates pose big problems for countries as they have knock-on effects on the economy and society, with few births meaning fewer workers in the labor force in future, as well as lower productivity and economic growth.
That means lower tax receipts for governments and extra strain on pension and healthcare systems as an ageing population grows and becomes dependent on a shrinking working population.
The fertility and birth rate — referring to the number of live births per 1,000 people each year — had been declining before the war, with Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine affecting sentiment toward having children in those regions, Iryna Ippolitova, senior researcher at the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy, told CNBC.
The situation was then made even worse after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
“Of course, in 2022 it got it even worse because of this massive migration and because the majority of those who left Ukraine were people of working age, economically active people,” she noted, adding:
“A lot of women who theoretically could have children left, and for those who stayed, the war and uncertainty meant they were unprepared to give birth in Ukraine, and the number of births is still declining.”
Even if peace talks come to fruition and the war ends, Ippolitova said migration out of Ukraine could continue, while those staying in the country could be put off having families if they fear a repeat invasion by Russia. This, she said, was another reason why Ukraine needed security guarantees as part of any peace deal.
Maternity units and hospitals have been damaged during the Russia-Ukraine war. This photo shows debris inside a damaged maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine after Russian shelling on February 1, 2026. Russia denies deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure.
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Although fertility trends are notoriously hard to predict, and baby booms are often seen after wars end, Ippolitova said the country’s low fertility rate could still trouble the Ukrainian economy in the future.
Schools and universities were already starting to experience falling numbers of pupils, she said, signaling a smaller working-age population down the line.
“I think that it is a huge problem. We have labor shortages right now, already, and after the war, it will only get worse … In 10 or 15 years when people my age retire, there will be nobody to replace them on the labor market,” Ippolitova said.
Russia looks for a baby boom
Despite being the injured, invaded party in the war, Ukraine is not alone in experiencing declining numbers of births. Russia has seen the same trend over several decades despite Putin promoting larger families as a “traditional Russian value” and patriotic duty.
The Russian state has introduced incentives for women who have three or more children, including lump-sum payments, tax breaks and state benefits. The Kremlin has even revived the Soviet-era “Mother Heroine” award, giving women a cash reward of 1 million rubles (around $13,000) for having 10 or more children.
Resistance to such incentives remains, however, with Russia recording 1.222 million births in 2024, the lowest annual total since 1999.
In December, Putin said during his year-end press conference that the fertility rate stood at 1.4 in 2025, and suggested Russia needed a baby boom.
“We also have a slight decline [in the fertility rate] — approximately 1.4. We need to achieve at least 2.0,” Putin said during his annual “Direct Line”, telling the public that “we must make the happiness of motherhood and fatherhood fashionable.”
Journalists watch Russian President Vladimir Putin answering questions during the annual “Direct Line with Vladimir Putin broadcast live” by Russian TV channels and radio stations at the Gostiny Dvor studio, in Moscow on June 15, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV (Photo credit should read KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images)
Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty Images
Critics say Putin’s position on the country’s low fertility rate boils down to control rather than demographic concerns.
“I strongly believe that Putin’s regime’s efforts to double down on encouraging births is not related to any kind of demographic trends. This is all about societal control,” Konstantin Sonin, the John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, told CNBC.
“[Russia’s authorities] want women to be at home, they want women to be with kids. They want men to care about the women, not about politics,” Sonin, a prominent Putin critic, said.
CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for a response to the comments and is awaiting a reply.
Sonin argued that Putin had already shown he did not care about demographics by starting the war against Ukraine, with the conflict causing economic instability, labor market shortages and inflation.
Efforts by the Kremlin to encourage more births had fallen flat, Sonin said, because women in Russia did not feel safe and secure, with the low birth rate direct evidence of that and effectively dispelling positive images of the country and war promoted by Russia and state-run media.
“There are more important things for any woman, for any young family, than just how much money in a direct cash transfer they will receive from the state. What matters for them is the general feeling of safety. And this is not there in Russia,” Sonin said.
“The quality of life has fallen since the beginning of the war. Hundreds of thousands of young people are dead because of the war, so people suddenly feel much less safe than they felt in other circumstances.”