US Vice President JD Vance (L) and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban shake hands as they meet in Budapest, Hungary, April 7, 2026.
Jonathan Ernst | Afp | Getty Images
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has U.S. President Donald Trump’s “complete and total support” — but is on course to lose the country’s elections, which are shaping up to be one of the most important and contentious in Europe this year.
On Tuesday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance will touch down in Hungary to offer Orbán his support and address an election rally at a soccer stadium in Budapest ahead of Sunday’s elections. While other European leaders have aligned themselves unambiguously with Ukraine in its war against Russia, Orbán has maintained comparatively close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He even said on the campaign trail that the EU was a greater threat to Hungary than Russia.
The latest polls show Orbán and his Fidesz party are set to lose to their main challenger, the pro-European opposition party Tisza, with its leader, Peter Magyar, on course to replace Orbán after 16 years in power.
It would be a significant change in a country where discussions are dominated by concerns over migration, vulnerability to higher energy prices, corruption and breaches of the rule of law.
Those breaches have led the European Commission to suspend EU funds for the country — roughly 17 billion euros worth of funds are still frozen.
Magyar said unlocking funds would be his “top priority” and has signalled he would be open to pursuing closer ties with the EU, including on a potential adoption of the Euro.
In an interview with the Associated Press over the weekend, Magyar said “reaching compromise” was an “art.”
He added: “The world seems to be passing by Europe. Europe has lost its competitiveness. Europe does not have enough strong leaders. There are no leaders with vision, and Europe is lagging behind.”
Lawyer and former government insider Peter Magyar speaks to the people at a demonstration he organised in front of the prosecutor general’s office on March 26, 2024 in Budapest, Hungary.
Janos Kummer | Getty Images News | Getty Images
An analysis by the German Marshall Fund said that Magyar’s premiership could mean a departure from the confrontational foreign policy pursued by Orbán — and could also bring Budapest closer to its Western allies on other issues, such as unity against Russia.
But a potential Magyar government would not represent a clean break from Orbán-era policies.
Migration remains a contentious issue — and so does support for Ukraine. Tisza has taken a cautious stance on Ukraine’s EU ambitions — and has even supported Orbán’s government in the European Parliament by voting against sending troops or weapons to the frontline.
Energy also remains a thorny issue. Hungary is currently locked in a dispute with Ukraine over oil deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline, which led Budapest to veto a 90 billion euro loan from the EU.
In recent weeks, Orbán has focused on addressing fears of an energy price shock, stemming from the war in Iran. He accused Magyar of conspiring with the EU and Ukraine to cut Hungary off from cheap Russian oil.
The election campaign has also been closely watched for any possible outside interference from Russia, with reports of misinformation on social media particularly in focus.