An eagle is seen framed though construction fence on the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, the main offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on September 16, 2025 in Washington, DC, U.S.
Kevin Dietsch | Getty Images News | Getty Images
On Wednesday stateside, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%.
However, given that traders are all but certain that the cut will happen — an 88.6% chance, to be exact, according to the CME FedWatch tool — the news is likely already priced into stocks by the market.
That means any whiff of restraint could weigh on equities. In fact, the talk in the markets is that the Fed might deliver a “hawkish cut”: lower rates while suggesting it could be a while before it cuts again.
The “dot plot,” or a projection of where Fed officials think interest rates will end up over the next few years, will be the clearest signal of any hawkishness. Investors will also parse Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and central bankers’ estimates for U.S. economic growth and inflation to gauge the Fed’s future rate path.
In other words, the Fed could rein in market sentiment even if it cuts rates. Perhaps end-of-year festivities might be muted this year.