Business confidence rose strongly towards the end of last year, with more evidence of a sustained pickup in activity.
Key results (seasonally adjusted)
General business situation: +39 (Prev: +17)
Trading activity, past three months: -3 (Prev: -15)
Numbers employed, past three months: +2 (Prev: -19)
Average costs, past three months: +39 (Prev: +44)
Average selling prices, past three months: +14 (Prev: +12)
The NZIER business opinion survey for the December quarter showed a more upbeat attitude among businesses than we’ve seen for some time. Activity is picking up, and hopes for the months ahead have continued to strengthen. Notably, demand for workers is responding quickly, and some pockets of skill shortages are already emerging.
Overall, there’s a strong sense that the soft results in the September quarter survey were something of a head-fake (not to mention the 1.1% rebound in GDP over that quarter). It’s unlikely that the QSBO alone prompted the Reserve Bank into its ‘circuit breaker’ 50bp OCR cut in October – we suspected that the case had already been made among the committee members by that point – but today’s results certainly support the RBNZ’s rapid shift to a neutral stance at its November review.
Details
General business sentiment rose to +39% in December, from +17% in September – the highest reading since March 2014. Firms’ own activity was a net -3% in December, up from -15% in September quarter. While this was still a little below the long-run average, it was the highest reading since September 2022 (other than a brief spike in December 2023, which appears to have been driven by hopes about the change of government rather than any genuine improvement. Expectations for the quarter ahead were a net 23% positive, compared to 10% in September.
The strongest gains were seen in the manufacturing sector, with more modest gains among retailers and services. Confidence was up in the building industry, but current conditions remained very soft, and prices continued to fall.
A net 2% of firms reported an increase in staff numbers, compared to a net 19% decline in September. Moreover, hiring intentions rose from 7% to 15%. Both readings were the highest since late 2023. Firms reported that skilled workers were slightly harder to find on balance, with evidence of skill shortages emerging in the building industry in particular.
Investment intentions saw a solid rise, erasing the disappointing drop that we saw in the September survey. There had been an initial lift after the Government announced the Investment Boost scheme in the May Budget, but it proved to be short-lived. The latest bounce in investment intentions is probably more reflective of the broadening optimism about the economy, rather than a delayed reaction to tax incentives.
Cost pressures remain a concern among many business, but more of them feel confident about being able to rebuild their margins. A net 39% reported a rise in their costs, down from 44% in September, but there was a small rise in the number expecting cost increases in the next three months. As noted earlier, prices continue to fall in the building industry, but rose for merchants and services, with mixed implications for the CPI.
Michael Gordon, Senior Economist
P: +64 21 749 506
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fan”,”url”:”/topic.creditfan”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/health”,”name”:”health”,”description”:””,”title”:”Health”,”url”:”/topic.health”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/bobs”,”name”:”bobs”,”description”:””,”title”:”BoBs”,”url”:”/topic.bobs”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/aviation”,”name”:”aviation”,”description”:””,”title”:”Aviation”,”url”:”/topic.aviation”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/liquidity”,”name”:”liquidity”,”description”:””,”title”:”Liquidity”,”url”:”/topic.liquidity”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/sustainability”,”name”:”sustainability”,”description”:””,”title”:”Sustainability”,”url”:”/topic.sustainability”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/apra”,”name”:”apra”,”description”:””,”title”:”APRA”,”url”:”/topic.apra”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/india”,”name”:”india”,”description”:””,”title”:”India”,”url”:”/topic.india”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics/futures”,”name”:”futures”,”description”:””,”title”:”Futures”,”url”:”/topic.futures”}]}
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