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“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” – Winston Churchill
It’s not an agreement. Just a plan.
But the political ice which has frozen lawmakers and closed the government for 37 days is softening.
Just barely.
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“There seems to be some indication of a thaw,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.
Let’s face it:
Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers are skittish about the shutdown. They’re agonizing about aviation. There’s increasing worry among bipartisan lawmakers about federal workers not getting paid and the cessation of emergency food benefits known as SNAP. Everyone wants a deal. However, no one knows where to find one.
Any agreement will be about the math. But lawmakers are locked in this shutdown box and can’t find the combination to escape.
There’s movement on the Hill for the first time since the government shut down on October 1 – as Churchill once said, it’s, “perhaps, the end of the beginning.” (Mehmet Eser/Anadolu via Getty Images)
That’s why it’s significant there are at least attempts to turn the wheels of Congress to open the government. But that may take a while.
That’s why it’s notable that, for the first time since October 1, lawmakers are even attempting to turn the gears of government back on.
“I’m optimistic that we should get something done this week,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D. “I think there’s a path forward here.”
Back on Tuesday, Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., believed the Senate would vote soon.
“I think it probably could happen Thursday. It might be pushed until Friday. But more than likely Thursday,” said Mullin.
But the Oklahoma Republican offered this caveat.
“I’m just making assumptions,” cautioned Mullin.
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This is the government shutdown of 2025. And no one knows anything.
Mullin was back on FOX Business on Wednesday, recalibrating what he said a day earlier.
“There’s been a group working in a very strong bipartisan manner, saying once this election is over, we’re going to reopen. And then today, they came back with some of the most ridiculous demands to take authority away from President Trump – wanting us as a Senate to guarantee what the House can and can’t do. And it’s just not feasible,” said Mullin.
Republicans have long known that the House-passed interim spending bill (from September 19) simply doesn’t work anymore. Even if the Senate were to align with the House, that legislation only funds the government through November 21. And that would deposit Congress right back where it started on October 1 with a shutdown.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., says “there’s been a group working in a very strong bipartisan manner,” but “they came back with some of the most ridiculous demands to take authority away from President Trump.” (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
So Republicans began eyeing a longer temporary spending bill running through late January.
“We’ve lost five weeks. So the November 21st, deadline no longer makes a lot of sense,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., referring to the end date of the original spending bill – still not passed by the Senate.
But Republicans need buy-in from Democrats to break a filibuster on any bill to terminate the record-breaking shutdown.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., was circumspect when asked what Democrats might support after a lengthy lunch meeting of Democratic senators on Tuesday.
“We had a very good caucus and we’re exploring all the options,” was Schumer’s anodyne reply.
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But despite discussions, no one is exactly sure what could court Democratic votes. Especially since Republicans aren’t relenting.
“It seems they’re pretty dug in and they’re okay, screwing people over on their healthcare,” said Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz.
Schumer and a group of Senate Democrats incensed House liberals when they helped the GOP avoid a filibuster on a bill to fund the government in March. So it’s natural that House Democrats are leery of getting burned again.
“How much skepticism would there be from House Democrats on any sort of agreement that would come from the Senate?” yours truly asked House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.
“We said from the very beginning that we will evaluate in good faith any bipartisan agreement that emerges from the Senate,” said Jeffries.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., claims his caucus has said from the start that they’ll “evaluate in good faith any bipartisan agreement that emerges from the Senate.” (Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images)
And that’s why the government likely remains shuttered for a while – even though there are bona fide efforts to solve the crisis.
“I don’t think any of us expected that it would drag on this long,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.
But on Thursday, Senate Republicans developed a new plan which they hoped might end the government shutdown.
Or at least liquefy the ice a little more.
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Republicans are challenging Democrats to block a test vote on a new gambit which would fund the Department of Veterans Affairs and military construction projects, the Department of Agriculture and Congress itself. That represents three of the 12 federal spending areas which Congress must approve each year. This plan would fund those three sectors until September 30, 2026. Lawmakers would attach another Band-Aid spending bill for the rest of the government until late January. But it was unclear if Democrats would go along.
“I’m less optimistic this morning than I was yesterday,” said Johnson. “What I understand is that Chuck Schumer has pulled them back from that and that they’re being instructed and told they can’t go there.”
And progressives are again leaning on Schumer.
Especially after his decision to help fund the government in March.
“He’s got to keep doing it and we’ve got to deliver a win because we can’t have what happened in the spring happen again,” said Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., to colleague Aishah Hasnie.
Progressives are once again leaning on Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. (Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Democrats are invigorated after Tuesday’s election results.
“There is no reason to surrender now. Every reason to stand firm,” said Blumenthal. “The message of Tuesday simply confirms what we’ve been hearing again and again and again.”
The plan could include an agreement to hold a vote by a particular date in the future related to healthcare subsidies. That’s the Democrats’ key request. But Democrats want more: a guarantee that Congress will offset spiking ObamaCare costs.
With the House not voting since September 19, Democrats are turning to political guerrilla tactics to make their points about the shutdown.
Rep. Chrissy Houlahan, D-Penn., showed up at a press conference by the House Republican leadership on Wednesday and hectored Johnson. U.S. Capitol Police tried to remove Houlahan – until they realized she was a member of Congress.
Johnson called Houlahan’s interruption “beneath her.”
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Rep. Yassamin Ansari, D-Ariz., set up a table outside the speaker’s office on Thursday afternoon, promising to answer questions, discuss healthcare and the Epstein files. Ansari says Capitol Police told her she could “get arrested if the table’s not moved.”
Ansari hawked healthcare subsidies as the nation’s air traffic controllers continue to work without paychecks.
“They’re heroes. They keep us safe every single day,” said Ansari of the controllers.
But she added a caveat:
“Is it more important than 24 million Americans losing their health insurance or not being able to afford their rent?” asked Ansari. “No.”
Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., noted that the air travel threatened by the shutdown is “nothing to mess around with.” (Valerie Plesch/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Aviation concerns are gripping the nation. But only one Republican is saying out loud what everyone is thinking.
“All it takes is one little accident. And if people die?” said Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. “So air travel is nothing to mess around with.”
Even if the Senate votes this week, few expect an immediate breakthrough.
“My hopes and expectations are always that we’re going to have enough Democrats to actually proceed. But I don’t know. We’ll see,” said Thune. “The Dems are having a hard time taking yes for an answer.”
Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., offered his own time frame.
“We’re at least seven days and more likely ten and very possibly two weeks away from opening up at best,” said Kennedy.
Democrats are split as to what they want to do. Still, many want an off-ramp. And progressives are ready to rage if moderate Democrats burn them again.
So we are far from the end of the government shutdown saga. But we’re not at the beginning anymore. Perhaps that’s solace to those tracking the shutdown.
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After all, anything which begins – usually ends.
Eventually.